THE AFGHAN MISSION: STUDY CASTS DOUBT ON MILITARY'S OPTIMISTIC VIEW

More Areas Under Taliban Control, U.S. Security Analysis Shows

by GRAEME SMITH; July 16, 2008 - Globe & Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080716.AF...

KANDAHAR, AFGHANISTAN -- More districts of Kandahar are controlled by the Taliban than by the Afghan government, according to a U.S. assessment that casts doubt on Canada's upbeat view of the war.

A detailed analysis by U.S. security officials shows that foreign troops and their local allies hold sway over the core, highly populated districts of Kandahar, but the zone of government control remains a small part of the vast territory assigned to Canadian responsibility two years ago.

The assessment divides Kandahar's districts into four categories: contested, Taliban controlled, locally controlled, and government controlled. Only four of 16 districts were classified as government controlled. The Taliban were described as controlling six districts.

The rest are held by local tribes or warlords, or they are battlefields with nobody clearly dominating.

The study was completed in January, but the findings were made available only recently to The Globe and Mail as the claims of progress by Canadian officials have increasingly contrasted with U.S. leaders' statements of concern about Afghanistan.

The months since the completion of the analysis have brought few signs of improvement in Kandahar's security, with a rising number of Taliban attacks, more than 100 people killed in the country's worst bombing since 2001, and a spectacular jailbreak that freed hundreds of suspected insurgents last month.

Other assessments of the province have been even more pessimistic: Over the past two years, the United Nations' periodically updated security maps have shown encroaching areas of "extreme risk" filling large swaths of the countryside described as government controlled in the U.S. assessment.

Canadian military officials have consistently offered a more optimistic view of security in Kandahar. General Walter Natynczyk, Chief of the Defence Staff, told reporters recently that violence in the province this year is not significantly above last year's levels.

He also said Canada's presence in the districts is expanding geographically.

Lieutenant-General Michel Gauthier reiterated the message through a spokesman yesterday, returning to an assertion he originally made on Saturday when he said the military's count of "significant acts, enemy-initiated direct attacks, IED attacks [bombings], and so on, all of those incidents combined," had increased only 3 or 4 per cent in June, 2008, as compared with June, 2007.

Gen. Natynczyk also said his troops have concentrated on protecting the major population centres in the province, and the U.S. assessment supports his statement. The districts listed as government-controlled - Kandahar city, Arghandab, Spin Boldak and Daman - are among the most heavily populated. Other areas listed as contested, Zhari and Panjwai districts, also contain large populations and have been the focus of Canada's most intense military effort.

At the same time, Canada's regular troops have abandoned positions in the north of the province over the past two years, including Ghorak district centre, about 70 kilometres northwest of Kandahar city; Forward Operating Base Martello, about 100 kilometres north of Kandahar city; and Gumbad Platoon House, about 80 kilometres north of Kandahar city.

These outposts were located in districts now listed as Taliban-controlled in the U.S. assessment.

Many other provinces also suffer from a strong Taliban presence according to the analysis, which found insurgents controlling or contesting roughly 130 of 398 districts assessed across the country.

Most of the districts heavily influenced by the insurgency were located in the south and east, but the study also found that the militants had gained a foothold in areas near Kabul, such as Wardak and Logar provinces.

The idea that security has deteriorated in Afghanistan is not unique to U.S. analysts; it is now the mainstream view among most observers of the war. Equally mainstream is the belief that withdrawing foreign troops would cause a disaster on a vastly greater scale, and many experts are calling for more international forces.

The new head of Canada's military also suggested more troops are necessary for Kandahar during his recent visit.

"The Kandahar area is a huge area, and we could take all the troops we could get," Gen. Natynczyk said.

His American counterparts have been more outspoken, as the monthly death toll among U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan surpassed the toll in Iraq this summer.

"I am, and have been for some time now, deeply troubled by the increasing violence there," U.S. Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters recently.

Gen. Natynczyk spoke about Adm. Mullen's comments in his meeting with reporters over the weekend, but dismissed them as inapplicable to Kandahar; the American general was referring to increased violence in the eastern provinces as a result of fighters infiltrating from Pakistan, he said, and also new activity in Helmand province caused by the recent deployment of U.S. Marines.

"I've been linking in with my American counterparts and their assessments in terms of their view of the increase in activity this year, and indeed I looked at what Admiral Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs has indicated, and he was pretty specific with regard to observations of increased activity being their additional troops in the south," he said.